Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 33 n° 335

New World Bank report

Posted by fidest press agency su sabato, 26 febbraio 2011

Warsaw.  The report is part of the World Bank’s series of low-carbon growth studies. Poland’s greenhouse gas emissions are not large by global standards, constituting just one percent of the total. Moreover, its per capita emissions now stand similar to the EU average, at ten tons of emissions per capita, a reflection of the sharply reduced emission that accompanied the transition to a market economy in the 1990s. However, given its lower income levels, Poland’s economy remains today among the least emissions-efficient in the EU. Over the next few decades, Poland appears to face a particular difficult test: catching up to EU income levels while becoming less dependent on abundant domestic coal for energy needs. The international agreement on climate change that is expected to eventually supersede the Kyoto Protocol and, more immediately, compliance with EU energy and climate policies, pose policy challenges for Poland. The EU 20-20-20 package requires Poland’s energy-intensive sectors, covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, to contribute to the EU-wide target of a 21 percent reduction (compared with 2005) while allowing Poland’s othersectors’ emissions to increase by only 14 percent until 2020. If Poland were to take no action (the “business-as-usual scenario”), the models developed in the Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy in Poland report suggest that overall greenhouse gas  emissions in 2020 will stand roughly 20 percent above 2005 levels, while 2030 levels will be 30 to 40 percent higher. report notes that:
• Costs to the economy will peak in 2020; but by 2030, the shift towards low emissions will augment growth. Overall, this abatement will lower GDP by an average one percent through 2030 from where it otherwise would have been.
• The economic cost in output and employment of Poland’s required abatement by 2020 under EU rules is higher than for the average EU country; and the restrictions on emissions trading between sectors aggravate that cost.• The energy sector currently generates near half of Poland’s emissions; but the transport sector — with precipitous growth and the need for behavioral change in addition to the adoption of new technologies — may end up posing the tougher policy challenge.
The combination of technologies chosen or new investments will depend not only on capital costs, operational savings, and emissions abatement potential, but also energy security, domestic sourcing, and a raft of other issues. With lower capital costs and earlier returns, energy efficiency measures hold out the promise of relatively low cost abatement that works directly to delink emissions from growth, the essence of a low-emissions economy.

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