Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 31 n° 259

EU referendum result expert comment

Posted by fidest press agency su venerdì, 24 giugno 2016

gran bretagnaProfessor Stephen Roper can talk on SMEs. He researches SME growth and innovation and is Director of the Enterprise Research Centre.
Professor Roper said: “Small businesses need to prepare for a period of volatility as markets react. Gains in terms of reduced regulation and EU membership costs may follow, but are probably some years off.”Over the next few weeks a weakening of sterling will help exporters, but will make euro imports more expensive, raising all small firms’ input costs. Interest rates too may need to rise raising business borrowing costs. Longer term, European firms may also switch orders away from the UK to insulate themselves from any changes in trading relations between Britain and the EU.”The gains for small firms from Brexit are probably two to five years away. There is potential for reduced regulation and new trade deals, but the timing and effects of both remain uncertain. Outside the EU the UK will also be free of EU competition and state aid rules allowing the UK government to provide more direct support to SMEs.”Professor Christian Stadler can talk on multinationals. He is the author of Enduring Success, which involved researching Europe’s biggest companies:Professor Stadler said: “It is not clear what’s happening next and businesses will be reluctant to invest. I don’t expect that there will be a massive exodus, but rather than expanding in the UK, companies are likely to do it in Europe instead, particularly for businesses which export to the EU.”The devaluation of the pound should help exports slightly, but it will be an issue for all those who have EU suppliers. There is an expected contraction of the UK market, which will hit sales in the UK.”In the long term if the UK follows the Swiss model, which is essentially adopting EU regulation minus having a say in the decisions, this would be the better option for businesses as it puts dealing with the EU more or less back to where it is at the moment. This will be an issue for some industries, like banking, as they won’t have much of an influence on regulation anymore. We see that in Switzerland for the pharma sector for example. Politically this would be a difficult one to pull off as people have to put up with the things they did not want – most prominently immigration.”If the UK takes a tougher stance on immigration, for businesses this will be a disaster as the EU will retaliate. Access to the EU will become difficult. For some companies this means doing business in Europe won’t be attractive any more. Others will have to deal with complicated bureaucracy. In short: a nightmare.”
Professor Kamel Mellahi can talk on China’s reaction. He researches emerging markets and business strategy in China:
“A key concern for many Chinese firms who have invested in the UK is that Brexit will see their business suffer because they will find it difficult to access EU markets from Britain. A big part of the appeal of the UK for Chinese investors is access to the EU.
“A significant number of Chinese businesses see the UK strategically placed as a gateway to EU markets, but with a Brexit they may put on hold investment in the UK until a clearer picture over trade deals with the EU emerges. This may not be the case for sectors that are more detached from EU markets such as real estates and higher education.”It will be interesting to see whether Chinese and other Asian companies that have committed investment and have their global or European headquarters in the UK will move part or all their investments to the euro zone now. If one goes by what has been widely reported by Chinese corporate leaders, Brexit will dampen the appeal of the UK for Chinese investors.”

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