Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 32 n° 302

Catella: Risk evaluation reveals good investment opportunities in Europe

Posted by fidest press agency su giovedì, 9 novembre 2017

catella10In the latest Catella Market Tracker “Commercial Real Estate Investments in Europe – Risk Evaluation in Times of Boom and Uncertainty”, an analysis of 28 European real estate locations shows a good basis for long-term yield generation based on the common risk key indicators – risk/yield, volatility and Sharpe ratio.The analysis of 28 European locations in an office and retail portfolio shows an average total return of 7.95% at the end of 2017.The top-5 performers are Dublin (12.1 %), Lyon (10.4 %), Stockholm (10.2 %), Paris (9.9 %), Barcelona (9.8 %) and Marseilles (9.8 %).
The bottom-6 performers include five German cities: Frankfurt (5.6 %), Hamburg (5.6 %), Cologne (5.7 %), Berlin (5.8 %) and Munich (6.5 %). The sextet is completed by Helsinki, with a historical annual total return of 5.9 %.For average volatility or standard deviation, the following picture emerges:The five German cities (Cologne: 5.0 %, Hamburg: 5.7 %, Frankfurt: 6.8 %, Munich: 7.1 %) and Helsinki (6.2 %) – as underperformers – record the lowest levels of relative volatility.
Three of the five riskiest cities are found among the top-5 performers: Dublin (21.2 %), Barcelona (12.9 %) and Paris (12.1 %).When applying the Sharpe ratio – a measure that takes into account both value growth and volatility – the strongest values are attributable to Brussels (1.13), Amsterdam (1.06) and Lille (1.01).Large-scale investors still believe that major cities are a must-have investment that ought to account for a substantial proportion of their portfolio. “With a view to traditional risk theory and the current conditions on the market, however, this maxim should be viewed with a certain degree of scepticism,” says Dr. Thomas Beyerle, Head of Group Research at Catella. A resulting “naïve” investment using the popular but simplified ABBA strategy is consequentially not an investment recommendation.

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