What is the pandemic’s true death toll?

Welcome to our weekly newsletter highlighting the best of The Economist’s coverage of the pandemic and its effects.Officially, covid-19 has killed around 4.5m people. But according to our own model, that is a dramatic undercount: we estimate that the actual death toll is 15.2m people, and may be as high as 18.1m.Last year, covid-19 in effect shut down the world’s economy. People stopped travelling and going to restaurants and concerts; they did not need to update their wardrobes, or buy much other than Netflix subscriptions and groceries. The Delta variant is different: it saps growth less dramatically but has fired up inflation.Partly because the virus has stopped tourism—Madagascar’s main source of hard currency—the country’s economy is shrinking dramatically, contributing to a near-famine in the country’s south. Our leader argues that in the short-term, Madagascar’s people need aid, and a lot of it; in the long-term, they need better governance. Vietnam’s economy, by contrast, has continued to grow, albeit slowly, driven by trade, foreign investment and remittances. That has helped lift its people out of poverty; whether they can become rich is less clear.Britain’s response to covid was helped by the sterling reputation of its National Health Service—the country’s strongest brand. When Islamic State set up its own health service, its logo mimicked the NHS’s sans-serif, right-leaning block capitals against a blue background.Finally, our business section ponders the future of meetings as people start returning, whether eagerly or reluctantly, to their offices. Zanny Minton Beddoes Editor-In-Chief The Economist