Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 31 n° 301

Posts Tagged ‘Climate Analytics’

Greenpeace at the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report approval meeting in Copenhagen

Posted by fidest press agency su martedì, 21 ottobre 2014

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Copenhagen. Greenpeace will host a press briefing on FRIDAY 31st, OCTOBER at 11.15 a.m. at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K) as a ‘side event’ to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meeting taking place in the city. At the briefing, climate and energy experts from the Danish Energy Agency, Climate Analytics, Ecofys and Greenpeace will elaborate on some key IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) themes: zero emissions, renewable energy and coal.
As official observers to the IPCC a team of experts from Greenpeace will be available for comment on the AR5 findings and their implications for action throughout the meeting in Copenhagen (27th October – 2nd of November, 2014). Media briefings on the IPCC key findings and Denmark’s 100% renewable energy commitment are available at http://www.greenpeace.org/ipcc. The IPCC is convening to approve and adopt the final volume of its AR5 Report. The report itself is scheduled to be launched on Sunday the 2nd of November. The Synthesis Report will integrate and condense the wealth of information contained in the three Working Group reports released over the past year into a concise document – explicitly targeted at policymakers. This is the core factual document drawing together the assessment of past changes in climate as well as projections for the future and looking at adaptation, mitigation and an overview of possible risks and solutions. “The Synthesis Report will bring together the latest understanding of climate change and what we must do to prevent catastrophic consequences. It will be critical in guiding governments as they decide their climate policies in the near future”, said Kaisa Kosonen of Greenpeace. “The takeaway message from the IPCC is that climate change is happening and we are causing it. Its effects are already evident across all continents and oceans – despite there being less than 1C° of warming so far – and some impacts are showing alarming signs of acceleration. Meanwhile, global emissions, especially from coal, continued to grow rapidly in the past decade.” “We still have time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change by phasing out fossil fuels and bringing emissions down to zero, but we need to get started now”.

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Bill Hare, Climate Analytics, with Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Michiel Schaeffer

Posted by fidest press agency su giovedì, 2 ottobre 2014

energyVictor and Kennel argue that the target of limiting global warming below 2degC relative to pre-industrial levels (the “2degC goal,” or rather, “limit”), adopted by the international community, should be dropped. They put forward two main reasons: that it is no longer feasible to meet the 2degC limit, in large part because there has been insufficient action to date, and that the 2degC limit is not measurable and cannot be translated into emission limits for countries and regions. They go on to argue that there should be a new process started to develop a a new set of global goals starting in Paris to replace the 2degC limit.Both major reasons put forward to drop the 2degC limit are hopelessly flawed or just plain wrong:
Whilst no one is in doubt about the difficulty of limiting warming below 2degC, it is incorrect to claim that achieving this goal is infeasible and cannot be done. The scientific community, in the form of the IPCC AR5 Working Group III report, has assessed that limiting warming below 2degC limit is technically and economically feasible, and at low to modest cost. No one in the scientific community has any doubt about the difficulty of the political decisions that need to made to realise this. Each person is entitled to their own views of whether or not political leaders will take the steps needed, but for the authors to dress up their own judgements – that these decisions will not be made – as a scientific fact is wrong.
The argument that the 2degC limit cannot be translated into emission goals and budgets is, to put it mildly, unconvincing, and demonstrates a deep ignorance of scientific developments over the last ten years. If this were so, then there would be no science-based policy debate about the size of the gap between where emissions are headed at present and where they need to be in 2020 and 2030 at global, regional, and national levels. In fact, there have been annual scientific assessments of this since 2010.No global goal on an issue as complex as climate change is going to be perfect, however it turns out that a temperature limit is actually a very good composite indicator of many serious impacts and risks. And it is understandable to the public and to political leaders, and it can be translated into quantifiable emission actions, which can be updated with new science regularly, accounting for the full range of scientific uncertainties.
There has been an enormous amount of work by the scientific community on issues related to planetary boundaries and on the implications of different indicators for emission pathways beyond global mean temperature. When put together, this research has shown the 2oC limit provides an upper bound on emissions if other key systems are to be maintained, within safe limits, a fact which, startlingly, does not come through at all in this Comment, despite the space spent discussing alternative climate indicators. On this issue, the scientific literature contradicts the authors and shows clearly that including other metrics (objectives, such as reducing sea level rise, reducing ocean acidification) will increase the level of mitigation (emission reductions) needed.And last but not least, the 2degC limit has triggered considerable political action at national, regional and global level – indeed the present process to negotiate a new global agreement with legal force and applicable to all stems very much from the scientific “pressure” generated by the existence of this limit. If action has not been sufficient it’s certainly not because of the limit. Many countries have indeed taken action – or are now planning more ambitious measures; however, in overall terms, the collective effort has been fully inadequate. The world is confronted with rapidly rising emissions – fastest from one of the most intensive source of CO2 emissions, coal – exactly at a time when CO2 emissions should be decreasing. It is wrong, however, to conclude that this means the issue is lost, when the main battle lies ahead and just when the process of developing a new agreement is building momentum. It would be an act of grave irresponsibility for the 2degC limit to be dropped. This would signal a clear deflation of pressure to reach an ambitious agreement, delegitimise the international negotiations, weaken efforts at a national level to build ambitious policies, and send a highly adverse signal to the private sector. Without the emission pressures of the 2degC limit there would effectively be a green light for continued massive expansion of coal and other fossil fuel intensive infrastructure in the next decade. As the International Energy Agency has warned, this infrastructure could lock-in warming levels of 4oC this century.
Dropping the 2degC limit , and with it pressure for the needed level of emission reductions, while starting a debate about a multitude of other goals is akin to doctors dithering over a critically ill patient. As in medicine, there are several indicators addressing different aspects of the vitality of the planet, but each of them would call for action if it reached a critical state. The planet’s rising temperature is a vital sign and the prognosis is clear for future warming without urgent action. What doctor would refuse to provide treatment to a patient with a body temperature exceeding 40degC because their blood pressure cannot be measured? (photo Reuters)

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Climate Action Tracker

Posted by fidest press agency su giovedì, 21 novembre 2013

Climate justice and water justice

Climate justice and water justice (Photo credit: Toban B.)

Warsaw Weak government action on climate change will lead to a projected 3.7degC of warming by 2100, around 0.6degC higher than the original promises they made in Copenhagen, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.The annual assessment by the CAT, a project of research organisations: Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that the world has a one in three chance of exceeding 4˚C by 2100. “We are seeing a major risk of a further downward spiral in ambition, a retreat from action, and a re-carbonisation of the energy system led by the use of coal,” said Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics.“Governments are taking a ‘bottom up’ approach to climate action, unilaterally degrading their pledges without review: the type of pledge first, review later approach to commitments that could lead to a very weak agreement in 2015.”Since the Warsaw talks began, the announcement by Japan to downgrade its target enlarged the global 2020 emissions gap by 3-4%. Australia’s backtracking on implementation could widen the gap further, with some positive signals coming from the US and China.These developments point towards warming of about 5˚C, under the highest of the new IPCC scenarios that sees a sixfold increase in coal use. There is a growing disconnect between current policies and 2020 pledges, and the longer-term reductions needed for 1.5-2°C.“This whole situation flies in the face of plentiful opportunities for action and the continuing rise of renewable energy,” said Niklas Höhne Director for energy and climate policy at Ecofys. “For the first time, we analysed whether currently implemented government policies are sufficient to meet their pledges and find that significant and very diverse action is happening, but still not sufficient.”“Instead of strong domestic policies to meet ambitious pledges, we’re seeing a weakening of action, and a degradation of pledges that sees the highest 2020 emissions levels the Climate Action Tracker has ever seen,” said Marion Vieweg, of Climate Analytics.

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Australian climate move would turn climate target into emissions increase: Climate Action Tracker

Posted by fidest press agency su venerdì, 15 novembre 2013

English: Senator Bob Brown at a climate emerge...

English: Senator Bob Brown at a climate emergency rally in Melbourne (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Warsaw The Australian Government’s plans to dismantle the current climate legislation could lead to it increasing emissions in 2020 rather than meeting its target of reducing them by 5% from 2000 levels, the Climate Action Tracker said today.As Prime Minister Tony Abbott introduced legislation into the Australian Parliament today, the Climate Action Tracker released a special briefing on what the repeals may mean, in scientific terms. The Climate Action Tracker has rated Australia’s current target of a 5 percent emissions reduction by 2020 at 2000 levels as “inadequate,” and consistent with a global pathway heading to temperature rises of 3.5-4˚C.However, by dismantling this legislation and replacing it with the Abbott Government’s proposed “Direct Action” plan, Australia instead looks set to increase its emissions by 12% in 2020.“Australia’s climate legislation was a milestone for the country and it had finally begun to turn a corner on climate change,” said Bill Hare, Director of Climate Analytics. “The legislation would have bent the relentless upward trend of its emissions curve downwards, moving Australia onto the first step toward a low carbon, climate-safe future, and created the governmental machinery needed for upgrading action.”“The proposed repeal will instead see a likely re-carbonisation of the power sector, the present machinery dismantled – and replaced by a climate policy that goes against the science.”

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