Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 34 n° 316

Posts Tagged ‘global economy’

IHS Markit Predicts Slowdown in Global Economy in 2019

Posted by fidest press agency su sabato, 15 dicembre 2018

Global economic growth will edge down to 3.0 percent in 2019, from a rate of 3.2 percent in 2018, according to the annual Top 10 Economic Predictions released today by business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). While global growth will continue to decelerate, the economy will also become increasingly vulnerable to shocks.“Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond,” said IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “Simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate. At the same time, the sell-off in equity and commodity markets, on top of the gradual removal of stimuli by some central banks, means that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. The good news is that the probability of a single policy event seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low.”The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of at 2.6 percent in 2019, less than the 2.9 percent growth seen in 2018, but still indicative of solid economic fundamentals. The new year will see countervailing pressures on U.S. growth: on the downside, the rising dollar, tightening credit conditions and higher tariffs could still hurt growth; on the upside, low interest rates, fiscal stimulus and constrained oil prices bode well for the U.S. economy.IHS Markit predicts Europe’s economic expansion will slow even further, declining to 1.5 percent in 2019. Several adverse economic and political factors are behind the continued deceleration, including less accommodative credit conditions, the negative impact of trade tensions on the manufacturing sector and exports and the appreciation of the euro against most currencies except the U.S. dollar. Political risks have also increased significantly, contributing to the four year low in business sentiment illustrated by the PMI by IHS Markit. Last, but by no means least, the continuing turmoil around Brexit will hurt UK growth, which will fall from 1.3 percent in 2018 to 1.1 percent in 2019.

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Monetary policy, good or evil?

Posted by fidest press agency su venerdì, 9 settembre 2016

Banca europea per gli investimentiWorst-case scenarios have been averted in recent months – yet again, we would be tempted to say. The oil price has not fallen to $ 20, China is still standing, the dollar has stabilised and Brexit is no longer causing many jitters. Instead of these much feared catastrophes, global manufacturing activity is shuddering back to life, downward pressures on inflation are diminishing, the US has the most powerful job machine in the world and the Eurozone has survived all sorts of torture instruments (bank stress tests, terrorism and rampant euroscepticism)… Are there still reasons to be worried?
· The global economy was not far from capsizing at the end of 2015 when its annualised growth rate fell to around 2.5% and dark clouds hovered on the horizon: a meltdown in the oil market, a soft patch in China and overhasty monetary policy tightening in the US by the Fed. Six months later, growth has risen back towards 3% and the sky is much clearer. The stabilisation of the oil market has had the major consequence of easing pressure on activity and prices in the manufacturing sector, especially in China. This has removed one of the factors that could trigger a recession or deflation. Another has been eliminated by the stabilisation of the dollar, whose sharp appreciation in 2014-2015 had two harmful consequences: it eroded the earnings of US companies and tightened monetary conditions in countries with dollar-denominated debt. In contrast, we expect a slightly weaker dollar to spur the recovery in capital expenditure in the US and to boost activity in emerging countries.
· The US economy is within touching distance of the Fed’s targets: an unemployment rate of 5% and an inflation rate of 2%. In truth, these targets have been in sight for some time already, but the Fed Chair Janet Yellen chose not to acknowledge this until very recently. After a first rate hike in December 2015, another is expected to follow before the end of the year. However, with a monetary policy that has only just exited the liquidity trap, the Fed has an asymmetric view of inflation risk. It will not be truly comfortable with monetary normalisation until inflation has exceeded its target, which will not be the case for another few months. We forecast only two interest-rate increases in 2017.
· The Eurozone economy is not at the same stage of the business cycle as the US. At the current pace of job creations, full employment is still several years away, as has a return of inflation to the ECB’s target. It is noteworthy that the bank lending recovery continues to gain traction. The ECB is maintaining an accommodative bias (extension of QE), probably because of concerns about a possible “taper tantrum”. A deflation scenario is no longer a tangible threat..
· Brexit is a structural shock, not a cyclical one. It is a political shock, not a financial one. It is a localised shock, not a global one. Although the immediate effects are close to nil two months after the event (aside from the steep depreciation of sterling), there is no reason for Brexit to be painless. The policy mix was loosened immediately to mitigate the expected weakening of UK growth. Over the coming year, the repercussions of Brexit will be negative but modest on the European continent and close to nil elsewhere. (Chief Economist del Gruppo Oddo, Bruno Cavalier)

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Expert comment on oil exporting countries failing to agree a cap on oil output

Posted by fidest press agency su martedì, 19 aprile 2016

Expert comment on oil exporting countries failing to agree a cap on oil output. He is David Elmes, of warwick_campus_2_large, is head of the Global Energy Research Network and worked for 20 years as a consultant in the energy industry. Professor David Elmes said: “No deal in Doha is not a very surprising outcome, but a significant group of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries meeting at all might indicate a new realisation of the role that oil and gas play in the global economy. While a lack of agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran looks to have blocked any deal this time, the question is what do all the major producers see as the long term picture for oil and gas? “Oil and gas will continue to be a vital part of our energy mix for some time to come, but the rising use of renewables and recent bankruptcies among the commercial coal sector show that oil and gas will have to compete more fiercely with other sources of energy and with the more efficient use of energy.“Well over half the world’s use of oil is in transport and rising fuel efficiency standards offset increasing vehicle demand. Then electric vehicles, smarter urban planning and biofuels also dent the need for increasing levels of oil consumption. Recent research by UKERC and involving Warwick illustrated that if a developed economy such as the UK wants to meet its greenhouse gas emissions goals, the use of more gas in electricity generation may be limited.“Moving from oil to gas, gas is often seen as a transition fuel with greater use over the medium term while lower carbon alternatives develop. But that asks companies to invest in new gas power stations that wouldn’t be used frequently enough or for long enough to make them the investments that companies can make.”

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Greenpeace reacts to carbon majors’ plans for tackling climate change

Posted by fidest press agency su sabato, 17 ottobre 2015

climate_changeLondon. Responding that the Oil and Gas Climate initiative announced new actions to tackle climate change in Paris on Friday Greenpeace campaigner Charlie Kronick, said: “The oil companies behind this announcement have spent years lobbying to undermine effective climate action, each and every one of them has a business plan that would lead to dangerous global temperature rises, yet suddenly they expect us all to see them as the solution, not the problem. The world should thank them for their offer of advice but politely turn it down. Arsonists don’t make good firefighters.”“The Paris climate summit is a chance to make significant progress towards a vision of 100% clean renewable energy by 2050. The oil majors fundamentally oppose that vision and will actively seek to undermine it in Paris. Their latest intervention contains nothing meaningful that will significantly aid the decarbonisation of the global economy.”

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Education and sharing day, U.s.a., 2009

Posted by fidest press agency su sabato, 4 aprile 2009

The education we provide our children must prepare them to succeed in a global economy and to contribute to their communities. Commemorating Education and Sharing Day, U.S.A., we underscore our commitment to a competitive and complete education. The professional demands of today’s workplace require a renewed commitment to education. Our youngest children need a strong early foundation. Standards must be raised, curricula must be enhanced, and teachers must be supported. Families, communities, and educators must collaborate to ensure that students are working hard and receiving the best instruction possible. Yet knowledge alone will not bring the future our children deserve. Our schools and community institutions must also help each child develop a moral compass. Education must blend basic American values such as honesty, personal responsibility, and service. These indispensable elements will not only help children succeed in challenging work environments, they will also help our youth engage in and contribute to their communities. Few have better understood or more successfully promoted these ideas than Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Lubavitcher Rebbe, who emphasized the importance of education and good character. Through the establishment of educational and social service institutions across the country and the world, Rabbi Schneerson sought to empower young people and inspire individuals of all ages. On this day, we raise his call anew.

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