Fidest – Agenzia giornalistica/press agency

Quotidiano di informazione – Anno 33 n° 244

Posts Tagged ‘limit’

Zero emission vehicles need to take over car market to reach 1.5˚C limit: analysis

Posted by fidest press agency su sabato, 17 settembre 2016

Paris-antenne-vue-eiffel-tourZero-emission vehicles need to reach a dominant market share by around 2035 for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s lower warming limit of 1.5˚C—and even that could be too late to avoid the need for significant negative emissions, according to new analysis by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).This transformation of the passenger transport sector would also have to be accompanied by a decarbonisation of the power sector to ensure the electric vehicles (EV) are truly emissions free.In the first of its decarbonisation series, the CAT analysis looks at transport, a sector that is key to achieving the deep cuts in emissions required by the Paris Agreement. (Download briefing here)In this series the CAT will examine specific energy-intensive sectors, and how emissions can be reduced to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s long term warming limits, namely, to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2˚C, and to “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5˚C.
The CAT’s latest analysis shows that if governments were to double fuel economy standards in new passenger cars by 2030, and achieve a 50% EV uptake by 2050, then most get close to—or even reach—a 2˚C warming pathway. But a 1.5˚C pathway requires more action.
“Emissions standards only get the transport fleet to a certain point—it is clear that in order to get to the Paris Agreement’s lower temperature goal of 1.5˚C, the world needs to make a paradigm shift to zero emissions vehicles,” said Markus Hagemann of NewClimate Institute.“Attention must also be paid to the recent discovery that some car manufacturers have been deliberately manipulating emissions tests,” he noted.“Perhaps a positive outcome of this scandal is that it has brought to light major shortcomings in the emissions tests themselves, sparking a move towards more realistic tests, hopefully leading to smaller discrepancies between laboratory and road emissions intensities.”“Aside from much-needed shifts in transport behaviour, for the transport sector to decarbonise there is no choice but to adopt zero-emission vehicles. For electric vehicles this would mean that they also need to be powered by renewable electricity,” said Yvonne Deng of Ecofys.To avoid exceeding a 1.5°C warming trajectory, zero global aggregate emissions would need to be reached around the middle of the century, implying that the last fossil gasoline or diesel-powered passenger vehicle would have to be sold around 2035 (assuming a new car would be on the road for an average of 15 years).“Even a date of 2035 or so for the last new fossil-fuel powered passenger car could be late: the earlier we decarbonise the transport system, the less we will need to rely on negative emissions that largely require technologies still awaiting large-scale deployment,” said Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics.The analysis looks at two scenarios comparing a range of big emitters: the EU, China, US, Japan, India, Mexico and Brazil. Scenario 1 would see a doubling of new car fuel economy standards by 2030, and Scenario 2 a doubling of new car fuel economy standards by 2030, plus 50% (zero emission) EV’s by 2050.
In the EU and the USA, the increased deployment of EVs would keep overall emissions on a downward trend in line with a 2°C pathway.
In India, the projected rise in vehicle numbers (activity) is so high that absolute emissions from passenger cars would keep rising even under Scenario 2. However, this would still be in line with the IEA’s 2°C pathway for India, which foresees a similar rise in emissions, reflecting this strong expected growth.
The situation in China, Brazil and Mexico lies between these two cases, with emissions under Scenario 2 stabilising as the effects of increased activity and reduced intensity approximately balance out. The resulting decreasing emissions trend is just enough to comply with a 2°C pathway.Overall emissions are expected to decrease most strongly in Japan (in both scenarios), partly due to declining activity levels.

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Assessing the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement

Posted by fidest press agency su martedì, 26 luglio 2016

Paris-antenne-vue-eiffel-tourParis. A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research. The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on ‘Targeting 1.5°C’ (http://www.nature.com/1.5Ctarget). Much of the paper’s focus is on characteristics of presently available science on low emission pathways that could achieve 1.5˚C. The paper finds that most of such scenarios at least temporarily overshoot the 1.5˚C limit, where warming would rise above this level before returning to below 1.5˚C by 2100. “Whether the presently available pathways are in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal is not a scientific, but a political question. Many vulnerable countries see 1.5°C as a limit that should not be exceeded,” said the paper’s lead author, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, of Climate Analytics. “Further research on the feasibility of pathways that limit warming to below 1.5°C is therefore a central element of a post-Paris science agenda.”The paper confirms that limiting warming to 1.5˚C significantly reduces risks and impacts compared with 2˚C, but also underscores the need for more research to improve the scientific understanding of impacts at 1.5°C of warming. These include consequences of 1.5°C for vulnerable systems such as agricultural production in tropical regions, impacts on human health and natural systems such as coral reefs, ice sheets, and impacts such as sea level rise.“In the light of our findings of discernible impact differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, we urgently require a better scientific understanding of the potential impact legacy of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C limit,” said Michiel Schaeffer, co-author and Scientific Director at Climate Analytics.The paper confirms that early peaking of global emissions, around 2020, and rapid decline toward zero emissions are critical steps towards achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. Governments’ near-term mitigation targets for the 2020-2030 period are insufficient to achieve the temperature limit. To address that, the Paris Agreement includes a mechanism aimed at increasing climate action over time.“We outline how the legal and policy mechanisms in the Paris Agreement would, in principle, allow to achieve its goals: through a regular, science-driven and synchronised five-year review of national emission reduction commitments that aims at enabling countries to regularly improve their pledges,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
“The first major review in 2018 of national mitigation commitments, which is meant to lead to Governments increasing their 2025-2030 emission reduction targets by 2020, could be a crucial first test of the Paris Agreement’s effectiveness,” he said.
In order to achieve the Paris Agreement’s mitigation and temperature goals, globally negative CO2 emissions are required by the second half of the century. Achieving such negative emissions entails the deployment of uncertain and at present controversial technologies, including biomass energy carbon capture and storage.“We find there is no clear difference in the assumed levels of bioenergy and negative emissions between 1.5˚C and 2°C pathways,” said Joeri Rogelj, a co-author and Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria. “Nevertheless, important and genuine sustainability concerns linked to these technologies have to be researched and addressed. Acting earlier and faster can substantially reduce the need for these technologies, but at this point not entirely eliminate it anymore.”
More research is also required into the risks and costs of negative emission technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Ensuring the environmental and social sustainability of bioenergy will be a key challenge under any future scenario and the scientific literature to date provides no conclusive evidence for increasing risks to food security from bioenergy systems between 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. (photo: global change)

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