Expert comment on China’s latest CPI figures

Kamel Mellahi, of Warwick Business School, Professor of Strategic Management and researches business in China said: “Concerns over disinflation will prompt further monetary easing as the CPI data strengthen the case for lower interest rates and supply side reforms.
“Higher food prices because of adverse weather conditions were the main driver behind higher CPI in December. They edged inflation up but there is no guarantee that they will continue rising in the coming months.”PPP – producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation – keeps on sliding, reflecting the protracted overcapacity, low commodity prices, and tepid domestic demand. Overcapacity in many sectors of the economy, particularly heavy industry, will continue to be a problem in 2016 and will push firms to lower prices to offload excess capacity and drive demand. There are no quick and easy solutions for the current overcapacity. The problem will have to be addressed incrementally over a period of time.”The prognosis for 2016 is mixed. The deflationary pressures are structural and are not going to go away. On the other hand, property prices are expected to keep going up, pushing inflation higher in 2016. Plus, the depreciation of the currency could push up the cost of imported goods driving inflation higher.”

Bahrain lectures address peace

MANAMA, Bahrain — The road to peace is long and arduous, but the journey is not in vain. This was among the main messages offered by Dr. Sawsan El-Hady in talks she delivered on 8 and 9 December in Bahrain.An Egyptian scholar of the Arabic language who has championed the cause of peace throughout her life, Dr. El-Hady addressed some 100 people — academics, authors, NGO representatives — over the two days of her visit. Her talks, which led to the vibrant discussions among the participants, explored the cultivation of peace at the grassroots, the role of the individual in promoting a harmonious society, and the invaluable contribution of women to peace processes, among other themes.While acknowledging the formidable challenges before humanity, Dr. El-Hady’s talks offered a hopeful vision for the future. But much, she argued, would depend on laying the groundwork for harmonious coexistence among different populations.”Creating a society characterized by peaceful coexistence requires persistent effort,” she said.Progress toward peace, she explained, would not reach its goal without addressing the question of justice in society.She also spoke about the importance of establishing unity, based on recognition of our common humanity.”Unity, to pre-requisite for peace, finds its meaning in realizing the value of our diversity and appreciating the unique gifts that each person brings to the mosaic of humanity.”A movement towards a more peaceful society requires a reevaluation of the role of religion, Dr. El-Hady further explained. While religion has been distorted and used for harmful ends, she emphasized its power to change patterns of thought and action, establish a sense of a common human identity, and promote a moral character and world-embracing vision.